Thursday, July 26, 2007

Extreme or unusual weather on its way.

The likelihood of even more unsettled or extreme weather conditions across the world was made even more likely by the activity of the Sun or rather the lack of it. For just around a week Solar flare activity has been unusually low to non existent (see pic below) Of course this corresponds to Solar minima, part of an 11 year cycle of Solar activity when the Sun goes from very turbulent flare activity to barely any at all.

We are now in the latter stage and there are many who believe that these periods have a profound influence on the world’s weather. For example the recent spells of extreme weather across Europe were both preceded by periods of low Solar flare activity. Now this current spell is the most profound of them all, and we can safely say that the next few weeks will be filled with extreme, unusual, or otherwise bizarre episodes of weather phenomenon.

Remember you read it here first.

See here for more on this topic
Solar flares and the weather

Southern Europe continues to stew.

An intense heatwave gripping southern and central areas of Europe set new records. At 41.9 centigrade Hungary saw its highest ever recorded summer temperature, whereas a record summer high of 44 centigrade was also registered in Bulgaria. Meanwhile not far away in Greece temperatures topped even this with a reported 45 degrees in the Greek capital Athens. In Italy the capital Rome also sweltered.

So far an estimated 500 deaths have been attributed to the unbearable heat and hospitals were swamped with cases of heatstroke and other weather related casualties. In Spain the city of Barcelona was subject to a blackout as the electricity network struggled to cope with increased demand due to the over use of air conditioning. Temperatures at around 40 centigrade were not quite as high as eastern and central Europe, but nonetheless uncomfortable and very different to those of northern Europe. Here floods, high winds, rain and unseasonably low temperatures continued to account for some of the worst summer conditions for over 60 years. So just what was going on?

Inevitably the Global Warmers were chirping with an unbroken chorus of glee, sprouting out to anyone who would listen that this was just a foretaste of the real miseries that would soon strike the planet.

So was this really Global Warming at work? Was this the result of the swirling clouds of carbon dioxide or was there a much more mundane explanation? Turns out there was.

As this site continues to illustrate there is nothing particularly mysterious about these spells of extreme weather. As on other occasions it was simply the work of whatever particular wind direction was blowing where. As can be seen from the picture below the Balkans and Central Europe were under the influence of very hot winds blowing up from the tropics. These then crossed over the deserts of North Africa and came streaming into areas of Europe to register the record temperatures outlined above.

Meanwhile Britain and northern Europe were still under the influence of considerably more cooler winds streaming across the Atlantic, bringing wave after wave of rain laden clouds. The reason that these caused so much flooding was simply because of the swirling nature of the weather system as it remained focused above Britain for a comparatively long time. Not much mystery then and shows how ordinary the explanations are when one looks to science instead of fantasy.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Well done to the Times

Congratulations to the Times newspaper for refusing to join the growing bandwagon of those streaming to attribute the recent spell of flooding in Britain to the effects of Global Warming. In a strongly critical editorial published on July 25th it points out that historically speaking Britain has a long and solid tradition of summer flooding. It comments: "All of this is worth remembering during the present deluge. If the torrent of water was not bad enough, the surge of ignorant speculation as to its causes has added to the misery of the season. Numerous commentators and supposed "experts" have asserted that the flooding is proof of global warming."

The Times adds: "One camp that has not joined in this ludicrous orgy of false prophesy is the category that should know most about the weather, the professional meteorologist. Our weather correspondent Paul Simons has pointed out that summer floods do occur in Britain rather often. There were, he outlines, dreadful runs of weather in the 1840s, 1910s, and 1950s before the advent of low-cost airlines and quantifiable carbon emissions. The claim that global warming is at work is no more plausible than more far-fetched suppositions. These include the idea that years ending in 7 are cursed." The column concludes: "Global warming has become an industry of its own, generating more heat than light (never mind the rain) as it wallows in breast beating hyperbole."

For the whole of the comment feature please turn to the following link:
Times Comment.

Low Solar flare activity may mean extreme weather to come.

As the picture below illustrates current Solar flare activity is almost non existent. In this connection it should be stressed that previous, though not quite so dramatic episodes of Solar inactivity have almost always resulted in particularly disturbed weather patterns (see here for more) and it will be interesting to see how the worlds weather systems react in the days and weeks ahead.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Solar flare activity again linked to extreme weather.

Recent spells of extremely turbulent or unusual weather across the world may be linked to periods of reduced Solar flare activity. As our post below (see here) illustrates quite convincingly it is a matter of record that the period of extreme and unsettled weather that affected many parts of the world around the end of June, and which brought heavy flooding to Britain, occurred very shortly after a period of reduced Solar flare activity.

Now the same thing has happened again. A matter of just over two and a half weeks ago we announced (see this link) that a renewed spate of reduced Solar flare could well result in yet another period of weather turmoil, and this is exactly the way it has turned out. Once again Britain saw widespread flooding and disruption of services, and once again there was a remarkable carbon copy of extreme heat in the Balkans, and in particular Greece where temperatures are tipped to reach 44 centigrade early in the week.

Although a lot more work needs to be done before we can understand the effects of the Sun on the weather there is definite proof that Solar flare activity has a direct bearing on extreme weather conditions. In fact exactly the sort of conditions that others have mistaken for human induced Climate Change. But there’s more. For interestingly enough, as the pic below will illustrate, current Solar flare activity has again dwindled and this could well create yet further turbulent weather conditions for the weeks to come.

With such definite effects of the Sun on our weather it is important to remind readers that Solar activity has increased quite dramatically over the last 50 years and the turbulent changes this has brought about have now been misinterpreted as man made damage to the environment.

Southern and Central Europe swelters.

As areas of northern Europe continued to endure less than attractive summer weather southern areas of Europe sizzled in the sort of temperatures (around 40 centigrade) that first gave credence to the theory of Global Warming. Particularly affected were nations such as Slovakia, Austria, parts of Italy, as well as a variety of Balkan nations including Romania and Greece for whom the summer - as reported elsewhere in this site has seen prolonged periods of very high temperatures.

So finally this just had to be Global Warming - the clear signature of man made carbon emissions that now exerted a unique stranglehold over wide areas of the southern Mediterranean and beyond. Well you may think that!! But you would be very mistaken, because once again we see quite plainly from the pic below that the reason for these high temperatures is simply a matter of wind direction. Greece for example catches a glancing blow from the winds threading their way up from the Sahara Desert in North Africa, whereas Central Europe is in the direct flow of winds flowing up from the Sahara Desert which as we all know is supremely hot, so that any wind that blows from it is bound to exhibit the same scorching properties.

So once again no mystery, and a quite obvious explanation that is apparent to anyone who really bothers to look.